What Verstappen needs to do to take his fourth title in Las Vegas

As the 2024 Formula 1 season enters into its closing stages, the battles in both championships are still alive, with Max Verstappen facing a challenge from Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings while McLaren are being chased by Ferrari and Red Bull in the constructors’. But could that change in Las Vegas?

Verstappen wrapped up his third title in 2023 at the Qatar Sprint with five rounds remaining – but how soon could he realistically claim the championship this time around, and what does Norris have to do to beat him? We’ve rounded up the answers to those questions and more below…

READ MORE: From championship glory with one race win to triumphing by a single point – The most dramatic drivers’ title comebacks in F1 history

How many points are left in the drivers’ championship?

There are a maximum of 86 points up for grabs across the remaining three rounds of the season. To score this amount, a driver would have to take victory in all three Grands Prix (with each awarding 25 points), win the Sprint in Qatar (taking eight points for the triumph) and score the additional point for setting the fastest lap at every race.

When's the earliest Verstappen can win the title?

The maths shows that Verstappen could win the drivers’ championship as early as the Las Vegas Grand Prix – with victory in Sin City guaranteeing Verstappen the title, giving him an unassailable lead heading into the final two Grands Prix regardless of where Norris finishes.

Outside of outright victory, Verstappen will automatically take the title if Norris doesn't outscore him by at least three points in Las Vegas – while even if Verstappen fails to score, Norris would still need to finish at least 8th or 9th with a fastest lap point.

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A reminder of the current points system below...

What does Norris need to beat Verstappen to the title?

Norris needs to outscore Verstappen at every race weekend in order to keep his chances of beating the three-time champion alive, but also needs multiple weekends where he can make significant inroads into the points deficit.

The Briton had closed up to within 44 points of Verstappen after the Sao Paulo Sprint, but leaves Brazil with a 62-point deficit to the Dutchman after Verstappen's epic Grand Prix win, in which Norris finished P6.

Given that 62-point gap going into Las Vegas, and the fact that after that race there will be 60 points available, Norris needs to outscore Verstappen by three points in Nevada to keep the fight alive.

If Norris wins, the title fight continues regardless of where Verstappen finishes and whether the Dutchman grabs the bonus point.

Can anyone else still beat Verstappen and Norris?

Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri are no longer in the running for the drivers’ title post-Sao Paulo. Leclerc is currently 86 points adrift of Verstappen in third, with 86 points left available.

In the unlikely event that Leclerc won every race, took all the bonus points and won the Sprint in Qatar, and Verstappen failed to score again, the duo would tie at the end of the season, but Verstappen would win based on victory count.

As for Piastri, he is now 131 points behind Verstappen after a disappointing race in Brazil, so can no longer take the title.

READ MORE: Ferrari’s strong form ‘doesn’t mean we will win all races from now on’ insists Leclerc as constructors’ battle heats up

McLaren vs Ferrari vs Red Bull – what’s happening in the constructors’ championship?

McLaren lead the constructors’ standings by 36 points from Ferrari entering into the final three races, with a total of 147 points available in the last few rounds. Red Bull have closed the gap to Ferrari though and are just 13 points behind the Scuderia.

All three teams can still win the constructors’, but no one can close it out in Las Vegas. Even if McLaren scored the maximum points – 44 – they would have at best an 80-point lead over Ferrari if neither scarlet car scored, with 103 points left available.

Mercedes no longer have a mathematical chance of winning the constructors’, not that their current form made that a likely prospect – although Russell’s drive in Brazil did look like they could at least add to their win tally for 2024.

READ MORE: From Stewart and Lotus to Hakkinen and Ferrari – All 11 times the drivers’ and constructors’ titles were shared between rival teams

Other dramatic drivers’ title battles from history and how they played out…

While overhauling Verstappen could be quite the feat for Norris, history has showed us on more than one occasion that launching an against-the-odds title comeback can be done – as the examples below prove…

1976 – James Hunt seals the title after memorable battle with Niki Lauda

The 1976 season is one that stands out in F1 history, with it being known for the championship battle that played out between James Hunt and Niki Lauda. It was Lauda who looked on course for the title early in the campaign, having built a 23-point lead entering into Round 10 of 16 at the German Grand Prix.

However, the Austrian suffered serious burns in a horrifying fiery accident at the event – before making a remarkable recovery that saw him return just two months later. Lauda still led Hunt by three points ahead of the season finale at Suzuka, but torrential rain in the race led to the championship leader withdrawing, meaning that Hunt’s third place was enough to seal the title for the Briton.

1982 – Keke Rosberg claims the championship with just one win

Keke Rosberg was back in fifth place of the drivers’ standings with just over two thirds of the 1982 season complete, and the Finn had yet to score a win. However, the picture changed when leader Didier Pironi sustained career-ending injuries in a crash at the German Grand Prix.

Rosberg started to close in at the top of the table and claimed a long-awaited victory in Switzerland, giving him a nine-point lead over John Watson ahead of the finale, the Caesars Palace Grand Prix. While Watson finished second and Rosberg down in fifth, the result still gave the championship to Rosberg.

READ MORE: From an emotional first win to proving the critics wrong – When under-pressure F1 drivers bounced back

2007 – Kimi Raikkonen outscores both McLarens… just

The 2007 title fight was filled with drama, much of it centred around the tense rivalry that was unfolding at McLaren between team mates Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso. With five rounds remaining, Hamilton led the standings by five points from Alonso, with Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen back in fourth place.

Victories in Belgium and China helped Raikkonen to close in, putting the Finn just seven points behind Hamilton entering into the finale in Brazil. Another win there for Raikkonen – with Alonso and Hamilton back in third and seventh respectively – sealed the Ferrari driver’s sole world championship by only one point from the McLaren duo.

2012 – Sebastian Vettel overcomes final race drama in an eventful season

While the 2024 season has witnessed seven drivers taking wins, the 2012 campaign was also one that featured multiple victors, with each of the opening seven races being won by a different name. It was Fernando Alonso who went on to build a lead in the championship, though, while Sebastian Vettel was 24 points adrift with eight rounds remaining.

However, a run of four consecutive wins resulted in Vettel snatching the lead and heading Alonso by 13 points entering into the Brazilian Grand Prix showdown. Vettel’s chances immediately looked to have hit a major snag when he fell to the back of the field after a first-lap incident – but the Red Bull driver survived a damaged car, a slow pit stop and changing weather conditions to finish in P6, giving him the title by three points from second-placed Alonso.

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