ANALYSIS: Ricciardo’s F1 career looks to be over – how did it come to this?

When Daniel Ricciardo left the Singapore Grand Prix paddock in the early hours of Monday morning, it felt like he was doing it for the final time as a race driver.

And on Thursday, RB confirmed that the Australian was indeed parting ways with the Red Bull family with six Grands Prix still to go.

How has it come to this? When Red Bull gave him a lifeline back into F1 with AlphaTauri midway through last year, it was with the idea he would step back into the world championship-winning Red Bull at some point if he delivered.

And before the summer break this year, that move looked likelier than ever as Sergio Perez struggled for form. So what changed within the space of less than two months? F1 Correspondent Lawrence Barretto explains…

READ MORE: Ricciardo to leave RB with immediate effect as team get set for mid-season driver change

Sources say Red Bull senior management have discussed the relative merits of their driver pool and had concluded they wanted to put reserve driver Liam Lawson in the car for the remaining six Grands Prix this season. That will allow them to evaluate him alongside Yuki Tsunoda ahead of giving him a full-time drive with RB next season.

Red Bull Motorsport Adviser Helmut Marko has been pushing to make RB a squad that once again gives their junior programme drivers a chance to prove they deserve a step up to the works Red Bull team. In his view, Lawson – who starred as a super sub for the injured Ricciardo last season – should warm the bench no longer.

Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner has been a big supporter of Ricciardo and fought to not only get him another shot first as Red Bull reserve, and then as a race driver at RB, but he also supported the case to keep him during this season despite some difficult results.

However, ultimately the Australian’s performances this year were deemed to not be strong enough by the Austrian side of the business. While they could see he was getting stronger, the performance curve wasn’t steepening quick enough for them - and thus the decision to change was made to give Lawson a shot.

READ MORE: Lawson to replace Ricciardo at RB for remainder of the season

Before the lights went out in Singapore, Ricciardo knew that would be his final Grand Prix.

It’s why he spent so much time sat in the cockpit, having parked his car in parc ferme, collecting his thoughts. It’s why he got so emotional when speaking in media interviews. It’s why he spent time saying goodbye to those close to him before he left the paddock for the final time as a race driver.

However, because no official announcement had been made, Ricciardo kept his counsel. Given the way he has handled himself throughout an illustrious career – with dignity and charm – you’d expect no less.

High-level sources say it was clear the writing was on the wall as early as the middle of September (before the race in Baku) that Ricciardo was no longer part of the plans and that Singapore would be his last race – and thus by the time Ricciardo got to Singapore, he had some time to process it all.

Ricciardo has enjoyed most of his success in F1 with the Red Bull family – seven of his eight wins came with Red Bull. They gave him his chance in Formula 1 and the opportunity for a final chapter in his F1 story. For that, he will always be grateful.

READ MORE: Ricciardo reacts to RB departure as he reflects on ‘wild and wonderful’ F1 adventure

I understand there was an opportunity for Ricciardo to stay on as a reserve driver with the Red Bull family.

He had previously returned to Red Bull as a reserve because it offered a route back into a Red Bull race seat. That paid off in some way with a drive at AlphaTauri, that is now RB.

However, the chances of him doing that after another stint as reserve were slim to zero – so Ricciardo decided now was the time to draw a line on his time in the sport.

Red Bull will now focus on getting Lawson up to speed, with the New Zealander getting back into the car at the United States Grand Prix at Austin – where he’ll only have one practice as it’s a Sprint weekend.

The energy drinks firm aren’t worried, though, as he impressed them so much when he subbed for Ricciardo last year at AlphaTauri while the Australian recovered from a broken hand.

READ MORE: 'Christian's always stirring s*** up' – Wolff reacts to Horner naming Russell as potential Red Bull target

Should Lawson deliver as Red Bull expect, he will become a viable option to step up to the works team should they need to make a change with their current line-up in the future.

For Ricciardo, it remains unclear what he’ll do next. The 35-year-old is back with his family in Australia and will take some time to figure out what’s next.

He leaves F1 with no regrets, having fallen back in love with the sport despite not achieving the on-track results he aspired to nor a return to the Red Bull seat he so craved.

For Red Bull, they continue to be as generous and brutal as they’ve always been. With one hand, they gave Ricciardo a route back in. With the other, they ruthlessly took it away when they deemed the results weren’t good enough and it was time to move on.

Lawson now has a chance to sink or swim. Best of luck to him.

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