ANALYSIS: Why Mercedes chose to take a risk and sign 18-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli for 2025

Mercedes have trusted their instincts by signing highly-rated Italian racer Kimi Antonelli for 2025 alongside George Russell. F1 Correspondent Lawrence Barretto explains how they came to that decision...

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff was caught by surprise when seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton told him he was off to Ferrari for 2025 at the start of this year.

His departure will mark the end of one of the sport’s most successful partnerships, which has yielded six drivers’ world titles for Hamilton and eight constructors’ championships for the team.

It wasn’t immediately obvious who Wolff would replace a driver of that calibre with. But an idea quickly began to percolate. A 17-year-old – who Mercedes had first spotted when he was 11 and impressing on the karting scene, called Andrea Kimi Antonelli – could be the answer.

MONZA, ITALY - AUGUST 30: Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain driving the (44) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 — Lewis Hamilton's decision to move to Ferrari for 2025 caught Toto Wolff by surprise

The Italian had triumphed in both the ADAC and Italian F4 championships in 2022 and followed that up with victory in the competitive Formula Regional European championship the year after.

That was enough to convince Mercedes, who signed him as a junior in 2018 while he was still karting, to skip F3 and put him in F2 with PREMA. He hadn’t even turned a wheel in the championship and, so impressed were Mercedes and Wolff with him, that they were already considering him for F1 a year later.

EXCLUSIVE: ‘Kimi will be the real deal’ – Wolff on Antonelli’s signing, Russell’s senior role and his Hamilton relationship

Mercedes didn’t want to put pressure on Antonelli so they let him focus on finding his way in F2 while also dovetailing a testing programme in F1 machinery, building him up in a 2021-spec car before moving him onto the 2022-spec machine – that is part of the most recent generation of Formula 1 cars.

In the meantime, they mulled their options. Carlos Sainz, whose seat Hamilton took at Ferrari, was considered – but a deal never came close. Wolff also chased Red Bull’s three-time world champion Max Verstappen hard, despite the Dutchman having a contract with Red Bull until 2028.

MONZA, ITALY - AUGUST 30: Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull Racing prepares to — Wolff chased Max Verstappen hard for the seat

The Verstappens, who know Wolff well, engaged and talks went on into the summer break but they ultimately decided to stick with Red Bull.

With Antonelli finding his feet in F2 after a difficult start, the Italian picking up two wins to sit sixth in the championship, and impressing during the private F1 tests, Wolff decided to take the plunge and sign Antonelli for next season.

It is a risk. His crash in his FP1 debut at Monza is proof of that. While his speed in those few laps before the off was impressive, his inexperience when losing control at Parabolica proved he has much to learn – as you’d expect given his limited running in Formula 1 machinery.

But Wolff fancies taking a risk. He won’t have wanted to lose out on another potential generational talent – having let Verstappen slip through his fingers earlier in the Dutchman’s career – and he’ll have wanted a driver oozing talent to fill the big shoes left by Hamilton.

He may seem inexperienced, but he does at least have 111 single-seater races under his belt. Verstappen only had 47 – albeit that included 33 in the super competitive European F3 Championship where he finished third with 10 wins – before debuting with Toro Rosso. Antonelli's namesake Kimi Raikkonen only had 23 car races before he made his F1 debut with Sauber.

Wolff on signing 'superstar' Antonelli

Mercedes believe Antonelli can be one of the greats – and that’s why they are putting him in the car now. They believe their junior programme has prepared him well and it’s important to them that, for the first time in their history, both their drivers have come through that system.

They are confident his upbringing, values and personality put him in good shape to cope with the immense pressure that will fall on his shoulders. Initially that will come from Italy, as they have a driver racing in a top team for the first time in a couple of decades, and then from the rest of the world as his talent is put to the test.

Verstappen has, and still is, delivering on expectation, and while Raikkonen arguably didn’t quite fulfil his potential, he can still call himself a world champion. And then there’s Hamilton, who won the title in his second season and added six more after a challenging period that only made him stronger.

Who knows which way Antonelli will go. But if you talk to those at PREMA, who have immense experience running young drivers, or at Mercedes – who have been following Antonelli for years – the Italian is the real deal.

It’s now up to Mercedes to give him the tools and the support network to extract that talent – and for Antonelli to seize his chance.