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BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 heads to Qatar for the penultimate round of the season?
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Qatar hosts the penultimate round of the Formula 1 season, with plenty still to play for at the Lusail International Circuit. Max Verstappen might have wrapped up the drivers’ title, but the Dutchman would dearly love to add another win to his 2024 tally, while McLaren and Ferrari are set to once again battle it out for constructors’ glory.
But will Mercedes make it two wins from two following George Russell’s victory in Las Vegas, or will someone else stand on the top step of the rostrum on Sunday? Here are what the odds tell us…
188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
The odds for the win
McLaren did very well here last year – and that was with a car that was good, but not as fast as this year’s model. As such it is no surprise that Lando Norris is the favourite for the win, the Britain last tasting victory in Singapore.
But he needs to watch out for his team mate – Oscar Piastri grabbed the Sprint win here last season, and no longer needs to play the support role to Norris, given the drivers’ title is done and dusted. And off the back of their 1-2 in Vegas, it’s interesting that Mercedes have leap-frogged Ferrari in the odds too.
• Lando Norris 3.00
• Max Verstappen 5.00
• Oscar Piastri 6.50
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 7.00
• Charles Leclerc 10.0
• Carlos Sainz 11.0
• Sergio Perez 201
• Esteban Ocon, Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly 301
• Alex Albon, Franco Colapinto, Lance Stroll, Liam Lawson, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
Verstappen is in Qatar as a four-time world champion
The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying
Qualifying has been hotly contested all year long, with plenty of different drivers bagging a pole position. Lewis Hamilton incredibly isn’t on that list though – he’s struggled in qualifying this year, but he has two chances to impress over one lap in Qatar.
Ferrari started the last triple-header strongly, with wins in Austin and Mexico City, but Brazil went slightly awry before they had to contend with some intra-team politics in Vegas. Will they bounce back this weekend? The track is expected to suit their rivals McLaren, but that Ferrari is certainly no slouch over one lap.
• Lando Norris 2.87
• Max Verstappen 3.50
• Oscar Piastri 6.00
• George Russell 7.00
• Lewis Hamilton 9.00
• Charles Leclerc 11.0
• Carlos Sainz 15.0
• Sergio Perez 151
• Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg 201
• Alex Albon, Esteban Ocon, Fernando Alonso, Pierre Gasly 301
• Franco Colapinto, Lance Stroll, Liam Lawson, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 501
The odds for a podium finish
While Alpine’s double podium in Brazil reignited the midfield fight, Las Vegas saw the big teams move back to the front of the field. And with no rain expected in Qatar, it is difficult to see beyond the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull.
Norris is chasing a first victory since Singapore this weekend
Sergio Perez would dearly love a podium, having not finished on the rostrum since China. The pressure is very much on the Mexican, after a lacklustre showing in Vegas that netted just the one point for his team.
• Lando Norris 1.40
• Max Verstappen 1.53
• Oscar Piastri 1.90
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 2.37
• Charles Leclerc 3.25
• Carlos Sainz 3.40
• Sergio Perez 26.0
• Esteban Ocon, Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly 67.0
• Alex Albon, Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda 101
• Franco Colapinto, Lance Stroll 151
• Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 251
The odds for a top-six finish
If it is looking tough for a midfield team to sneak onto the podium, what about into the top six? Pierre Gasly qualified third in Vegas, and might well have finished high up the order had he not suffered a mechanical issue that forced his retirement.
The odds have Nico Hulkenberg as the midfield driver most likely to break into the higher points – and it is easy to see why, with Haas looking quick across a variety of different tracks since their big package of upgrades arrived in Austin.
• Lando Norris 1.07
• Max Verstappen 1.08
• Oscar Piastri 1.16
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.25
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 1.33
• Sergio Perez 3.00
• Nico Hulkenberg 7.00
• Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 9.00
• Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen 10.0
• Alex Albon 13.0
• Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda 19.0
• Franco Colapinto 26.0
• Lance Stroll 34.0
• Valtteri Bottas 51.0
• Zhou Guanyu 101
Russell won last time out in Las Vegas - but can he repeat that this weekend?
The odds for a points finish
Any points would really come in handy for Alpine, Haas and RB. Those three teams are squabbling over P6 in the championship, with just four points separating them.
Yuki Tsunoda scored last time out as RB try to fight back, having dropped from sixth to eighth in the last few races, and he will be backed up by a team mate who did race here last year when he was standing in for the injured Daniel Ricciardo.
• Lando Norris, Max Verstappen 1.05
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri 1.07
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 1.08
• Sergio Perez 1.20
• Nico Hulkenberg 1.80
• Esteban Ocon, Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen, Pierre Gasly 2.35
• Alex Albon 2.60
• Yuki Tsunoda 3.00
• Liam Lawson 3.50
• Franco Colapinto 4.50
• Lance Stroll 7.00
• Valtteri Bottas 34.0
• Zhou Guanyu 67.0
The odds for fastest lap
McLaren made sure to secure the bonus point for the fastest lap last time out, unsure on whether the constructors’ fight will go all the way down to the wire or not. Whether they do so again largely depends on the state of play – if they lead the race and the Ferrari boys are struggling, they could secure the constructors’ without needing to risk a late foray onto the soft tyres.
• Lando Norris 3.50
• Max Verstappen 3.75
• Oscar Piastri 7.00
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 8.00
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 9.00
• Sergio Perez 17.0
• Nico Hulkenberg 101
• Pierre Gasly 126
• Alex Albon, Esteban Ocon, Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen 151
• Franco Colapinto, Lance Stroll, Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda 201
• Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 251
Perez arrives in Qatar in need of a strong result
What are the odds for which team will take the most points?
Unsurprisingly given their form here last year, McLaren are favourites ahead of Mercedes to bag the most points. The Silver Arrows might have impressed hugely by being the class of the field last weekend, but the cooler conditions in Las Vegas favoured them.
Whether Russell and Hamilton can repeat their strong showing in the warmer climate of Qatar remains to be seen – but both certainly seem motivated to try and finish on a high, and given they aren’t fighting for the championship, have a lot less to lose.
• McLaren 2.00
• Mercedes 3.50
• Red Bull 4.75
• Ferrari 5.50
• Alpine, Aston Martin, Haas 201
• RB, Kick Sauber, Williams 251
The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race
Somewhat surprisingly given the layout, the Safety Car didn’t feature last weekend in Vegas. But could it do so here? The Lusail International Circuit is certainly a quick track, so an accident could be high-speed, with the drivers having little time to correct the smallest of mistakes.
• Yes 1.85
• No 1.85
Ferrari need to start reducing the deficit to McLaren in the constructors' this weekend
The odds for a number of classified drivers
Reliability cost Gasly and Alex Albon in Las Vegas last weekend, but 18 cars managed to make it to the flag. Reliability has been strong all season for most of the teams, but this late in the season, there could be a few cars fitted with some fairly old Power Unit components…
• Over 17.5 1.20
• Under 17.5 4.00
• Over 18.5 1.85
• Under 18.5 1.85
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The odds for a winning margin
Hamilton chased and harried Russell hard in the closing stages of Vegas, making sure his team mate didn’t have a comfortable margin of victory. Will we see something similar this weekend?
Given how closely matched the top teams are expected to be, the winning margin could well be very narrow indeed – in fact, we could be on for a barnstorming finish on Sunday.
• Over 10 seconds 2.50
• Under 5 seconds 2.50
• Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 3.10
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