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BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 reaches the Ferrari heartland of Monza?
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Max Verstappen comes into Monza with a lead in the drivers’ championship but no Grand Prix win now for the past five races. Can the Red Bull man turn his fortunes around in Italy, or will Lando Norris press home his advantage and start to reduce the Dutchman’s lead in the overall standings? And just what sort of form might Ferrari have on home soil? Let’s see what the odds have to say…
188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
The odds for the win
Norris is now favourite ahead of Verstappen to take victory in Monza and add to his tally of two wins from the season so far. He is in a newly-upgraded McLaren that looked incredibly impressive in Zandvoort last weekend, but will it be as strong at the Temple of Speed? His team mate Oscar Piastri is third favourite, ahead of the Mercedes drivers who had what their boss called an “off weekend” in the Netherlands.
But the big question is what sort of pace will the RB20 have this weekend? Can Verstappen take the fight to Norris, or is he about to see his championship lead further eroded?
• Lando Norris 2.20
• Max Verstappen 3.00
• Oscar Piastri 7.00
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 12.0
• Charles Leclerc 21.0
• Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez 67.0
• Alex Albon, Fernando Alonso, Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Nico Hulkenberg 301
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
Norris comes into the Monza off the back of his spectacular win in Zandvoort
The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying
Again, Norris is favourite after he bagged pole last weekend. But whether he could keep the lead should he start P1 remains to be seen – McLaren investigating what is going on with both Norris and Piastri’s starts at the moment. Ferrari have jumped up the order, moving ahead of the Mercedes pair on one-lap pace according to the bookmakers.
It was their race pace that looked impressive last weekend though, as Charles Leclerc bagged his second podium in a row. They’ll have an expectant Tifosi cheering them on this weekend, but it will be a tough ask for the Scuderia to grab pole given the raw speed that McLaren seemingly has.
• Lando Norris 2.60
• Max Verstappen 3.60
• Oscar Piastri 6.50
• Charles Leclerc 8.00
• Carlos Sainz 12.0
• George Russell 13.0
• Lewis Hamilton 17.00
• Sergio Perez 34.0
• Fernando Alonso 67.0
• Alex Albon, Lance Stroll, Nico Hulkenberg 101
• Kevin Magnussen 151
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
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The odds for a podium finish
Mercedes won three races out of four and seemed to be the team flying high, but then came Zandvoort. Their race pace seemed to disappear and as such, they have slipped down the order when it comes to the odds for a podium finish.
Verstappen is without a win since Spain now
The podium has been much harder this year for midfield teams to get near – no one outside the top four teams has stood on the rostrum yet, Fernando Alonso’s fifth place from Saudi the best midfield result so far in a Grand Prix, with Daniel Ricciardo’s fourth in the Sprint in Miami worthy of an honourable mention.
• Lando Norris 1.23
• Max Verstappen 1.30
• Oscar Piastri 2.00
• Charles Leclerc 2.45
• Carlos Sainz 3.25
• George Russell 3.40
• Lewis Hamilton 3.50
• Sergio Perez 15.0
• Fernando Alonso 41.0
• Alex Albon 67.0
• Lance Stroll 101
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 151
• Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 251
The odds for a top six finish
Sergio Perez’s struggles this season have ben well documented but the Mexican seems slightly on the up of late – making Q3 in the past two race weekends and coming home in the points in both. With his car no longer the class of the field, can he still manage some results to deliver maximum points for his team?
Red Bull’s lead in the constructors’ championship is diminishing race by race, so they could do with a strong result in Monza to try and edge away from McLaren, although at least with Baku coming up they have a track inbound that normally suits both their car and their drivers.
• Lando Norris 1.05
• Max Verstappen 1.06
• Oscar Piastri 1.10
• Charles Leclerc 1.20
• Carlos Sainz 1.30
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.35
• Sergio Perez 2.10
• Fernando Alonso 6.50
• Alex Albon 13.0
• Lance Stroll, Nico Hulkenberg 15.0
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Kevin Magnussen, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 17.0
• Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 101
Leclerc will be pushing for a strong result at his team's home race
The odds for a points finish
Alonso said last week that he knows he is fighting for P9 at best at the moment, with those lower points being squabbled over by a number of teams. Williams might fancy their chances of picking up a point or two at a track that normally suits their car, especially if they can put their latest upgrades to good use with a trouble-free weekend.
Haas haven’t scored for three races now, so they need to start chipping away if they are to overhaul RB for sixth in the constructors’. Meanwhile, Kick Sauber remain the only team yet to score this season – something that is reflected in their rather lengthy odds.
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, George Russell, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Oscar Piastri, Sergio Perez 1.05
• Fernando Alonso 1.30
• Alex Albon 1.80
• Lance Stroll 2.35
• Nico Hulkenberg 2.50
• Kevin Magnussen 3.50
• Yuki Tsunoda 4.50
• Pierre Gasly 5.00
• Daniel Ricciardo 6.50
• Esteban Ocon 7.00
• Valtteri Bottas 13.0
• Zhou Guanyu 26.0
The odds for fastest lap
Norris pumped in the fastest lap last weekend at the very last time of asking, leaving enough in his tyres to pick up the bonus point. If he is going to overhaul Verstappen’s sizable lead in the drivers’ championship, he needs every point he can get.
Hamilton's qualifying let him down in Zandvoort - something he'll be looking to put right here
As for the rest, so much will depend on the race situation with Mercedes last weekend finding themselves with a free pit stop for Lewis Hamilton late on. The point might matter less to them than to McLaren in the championship, but who knows how close things might be come Abu Dhabi.
• Lando Norris 2.75
• Max Verstappen 3.25
• Oscar Piastri 8.00
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 11.0
• Sergio Perez 19.0
• Fernando Alonso 41.0
• Kevin Magnussen, Lance Stroll, Nico Hulkenberg 101
• Alex Albon 151
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 251
What are the odds for which team will take the most points?
Thanks to Piastri’s solid form, McLaren have edged ahead of Red Bull – but will the papaya team have to start thinking of team orders should the Aussie manage to get in front of Norris this weekend?
As for the rest, Ferrari remain ahead of Mercedes thanks to their Zandvoort form, and if Carlos Sainz can have a smoother weekend, the Scuderia might even fancy their chances of out-stripping Red Bull.
• McLaren 1.60
• Red Bull 3.50
• Ferrari 6.50
• Mercedes 10.0
• Aston Martin 101
• Haas 126
• Williams 151
• Alpine, RB, Kick Sauber 201
After a difficult weekend, Williams could do with a strong result in Monza
The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race
Zandvoort last weekend was a mostly trouble-free race, with the Safety Car not called into action. But what will happen at Monza? It’s a fast track with decent run off areas, but drivers have been known to tangle here in the past.
But last year most of the drama came before lights out, with Yuki Tsunoda parking up with engine trouble on the Formation Lap, causing the start to be delayed by 20 minutes.
• Yes 1.85
• No 1.85
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The odds for a number of classified drivers
Everyone finished the race in Zandvoort last weekend, but Monza’s unique demands and high-speed nature can cause issues for engines, especially for anyone who only has older PU components so late in the season.
Perez is another driver who needed a big result this weekend to silence the last few doubters
Then there are those that might tangle, especially off the line. Bodywork damage can be costly here, as anything that increases drag will cost a lot of time on the straights – which could well result in some retirements late on.
• Over 18.5 1.55
• Under 18.5 2.25
• Over 19.5 3.25
• Under 19.5 1.30
The odds for a winning margin
Norris’s margin of victory last weekend was eye-catchingly large, the Brit winning by over 20 seconds from Verstappen on a day where no Safety Cars came into play. But can he do something similar this weekend – or will it be a much tighter affair?
• Over 10 seconds 2.75
• Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 3.60
• Under 5 seconds 2.10
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