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BETTING GUIDE: Who do the odds favour as F1 heads to Baku?
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Formula 1 returns after a weekend off with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix – and what a weekend we should have in store. Max Verstappen is chasing a first race win since Spain, as he looks to wrestle control of the drivers’ championship back from a clutch of chasing drivers, while Charles Leclerc will be trying to build some momentum after that famous win last time out in Monza. But who do the odds favour in Baku?
188BET’s odds are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
The odds for the win
He might not have won last time out, but McLaren’s Lando Norris is the man to beat according to the odds. That papaya car has proven it is fast across a range of different tracks, and Norris has cut out the small mistakes that cost him earlier this season.
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Last weekend’s winner Leclerc and the man who could have had the victory in Italy, bar a strategic call, Oscar Piastri are also up there, with Max Verstappen falling down the order. Spain is a long time ago now, and although he won the Sprint in Austria, the Dutchman hasn’t stood on the top step of the rostrum for two and a half months now.
• Lando Norris 2.20
• Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri 6.00
• Max Verstappen 7.50
• Carlos Sainz 11.0
• Lewis Hamilton 15.0
• George Russell 17.0
• Sergio Perez 26.0
• Alex Albon, Fernando Alonso, Lance Stroll 301
• Oliver Bearman, Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Franco Colapinto, Nico Hulkenberg, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
Norris is the favourite heading into the weekend
The odds for who will be fastest in qualifying
Qualifying has been incredibly tight of late, with six drivers often vying for pole position. Norris remains favourite again, having taken pole at both races since the summer break.
Carlos Sainz has sneaked in front of the Mercedes pair, with Lewis Hamilton admitting that his qualifying has been letting him down this year. But really, over one lap, it has been anyone’s guess who pole will go to, with the margins getting tighter and tighter as the year wears on.
• Lando Norris 2.60
• Charles Leclerc 4.50
• Oscar Piastri 6.00
• Max Verstappen 7.00
• Carlos Sainz 11.0
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 15.0
• Sergio Perez 17.0
• Fernando Alonso 81.0
• Alex Albon 101
• Lance Stroll 151
• Nico Hulkenberg, Oliver Bearman 251
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Franco Colapinto, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 601
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The odds for a podium finish
No midfield runner has stood on the podium yet, with the best effort remaining Daniel Ricciardo’s Sprint fourth place in Miami, or Fernando Alonso’s fifth place finish from Saudi Arabia. Sergio Perez might have started the season strongly, with four podium finishes in the fist five races but he now hasn’t stood on the rostrum since China – although Baku is one of his specialist tracks.
Leclerc is the man of the moment, having won last time out for Ferrari
Norris has 10 podium finishes from 16 races, the same as Verstappen has managed. But crucially the Dutchman has managed more wins – hence his lead in the drivers’ championship.
• Lando Norris 1.20
• Charles Leclerc 1.60
• Oscar Piastri 1.80
• Max Verstappen 2.00
• Carlos Sainz 3.20
• Lewis Hamilton 4.50
• George Russell 5.00
• Sergio Perez 8.00
• Fernando Alonso 34.0
• Alex Albon, Lance Stroll, Nico Hulkenberg 51.0
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Oliver Bearman, Pierre Gasly, Yuki Tsunoda 151
• Franco Colapinto, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu 301
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The odds for a top-six finish
Can any of the midfield runners squeeze into the top six in Baku? Nico Hulkenberg has managed to do so twice this year, in Austria and at Silverstone. But so much will depend on reliability, with Baku in the past sometimes seeing a high number of retirements.
The last seven races have only seen a maximum of one car fail to make the finish, with everyone making it to the chequered flag in Zandvoort two races ago. Hence why the task of a top-six finish has been so tough on the midfield drivers this year.
• Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri 1.10
• Max Verstappen 1.15
• Carlos Sainz 1.25
• Lewis Hamilton 1.30
• George Russell 1.55
• Sergio Perez 2.20
• Fernando Alonso 6.00
• Alex Albon 8.00
• Lance Stroll 11.0
• Nico Hulkenberg 15.0
• Oliver Bearman 17.0
• Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda 21.0
• Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 26.0
• Franco Colapinto 41.0
• Valtteri Bottas 51.0
• Zhou Guanyu 67.0
Verstappen will be looking to get back to winning ways this weekend
The odds for a points finish
Alex Albon finished in the points in Italy, and arguably would have done so in the Netherlands as well but for that qualifying disqualification that relegated him to the back of the grid.
But what of Oliver Bearman? He scored points on his F1 debut earlier this season – but he was in what has proved to be a race-winning Ferrari. This weekend he drives for Haas in place of the banned Kevin Magnussen, so he might find it a little harder to barge his way into the top 10.
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• Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen 1.05
• Carlos Sainz, Oscar Piastri 1.07
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 1.08
• Sergio Perez 1.10
• Fernando Alonso 1.25
• Alex Albon 2.00
• Lance Stroll 2.20
• Nico Hulkenberg, Yuki Tsunoda 2.60
• Daniel Ricciardo 4.30
• Oliver Bearman 4.50
• Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly 5.50
• Franco Colapinto 7.00
• Valtteri Bottas 15.0
• Zhou Guanyu 26.0
Can Albon bag any more points for Williams in Baku?
The odds for fastest lap
With Norris having a big gap to close down on Verstappen in the drivers’ championship, a handful of bonus points for fastest laps could make all the difference to his chances. He’s grabbed three so far this season, the most of anyone.
But so much will depend on the race situation, with Baku notoriously hard on tyres. Whoever has enough tread left late on, when the fuel is at its lightest, will stand as good a chance as any of stealing that bonus point.
• Lando Norris 2.25
• Max Verstappen 3.50
• Oscar Piastri 10.0
• Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc 11.0
• George Russell, Lewis Hamilton 13.0
• Sergio Perez 17.0
• Fernando Alonso 51.0
• Lance Stroll 101
• Alex Albon, Nico Hulkenberg, Oliver Bearman 151
• Daniel Ricciardo, Esteban Ocon, Franco Colapinto, Pierre Gasly, Valtteri Bottas, Yuki Tsunoda, Zhou Guanyu 251
What are the odds for which team will take the most points?
Red Bull are only third favourites in this category now, such has been the surge McLaren have made. And with Ferrari showing strong race pace in Zandvoort before winning in front of the home crowd in Monza, it is easy to see why they have moved ahead of the Bulls as well.
• McLaren 1.65
• Ferrari 4.00
• Red Bull 6.00
• Mercedes 7.50
• Aston Martin, Williams 101
• Alpine, Haas, RB, Kick Sauber 201
Bearman is back racing in F1 again this weekend, in place of Magnussen
The odds for a Safety Car appearing during the race
There hasn’t been a Safety Car of late, the last one making an appearance all the way back in Canada. Again, the reliability of these cars has been tremendous, with a handful of occasions where a driver can still make it back to the pits even if something does go wrong.
• Yes 1.40
• No 2.75
The odds for a number of classified drivers
Along with the two Safety Cars in Canada, that race also saw five drivers fail to finish. Since then, reliability has been impressive with plenty of drivers also being sensible and keeping out of the barriers – at least in the races themselves.
But there have been some famous crashes in Baku over the years, so it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if the number of drivers making the flag takes a bit of a dip this weekend.
• Over 17.5 1.60
• Under 17.5 2.20
• Over 18.5 3.00
• Under 18.5 1.35
Alonso is still chasing his first podium of the year for Aston Martin
The odds for a winning margin
Leclerc didn’t win by much in Monza, with Piastri hunting him right to the line. That was in direct contrast to the weekend before, when Norris had enjoyed an extremely comfortable winning margin over the rest. But what will happen this weekend?
• Over 10 seconds 3.00
• Between 5 and 10 seconds inclusive 3.50
• Under 5 seconds 2.00
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