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Lawrence Barretto’s 5 bold predictions for the 2025 season – how many will come true this year?
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After eating what felt like my own bodyweight in turkey, roast potatoes and an allotment’s worth of root vegetables, I settled into the sofa to ponder what lies ahead in 2025 after one of the most unpredictable seasons in decades, and have landed on my five bold predictions for the year ahead. Here goes…
1. Lando Norris will win the drivers' world championship
Lando Norris did me a solid by meeting my prediction of a top-three finish in the drivers’ championship, so I’m staying on the Norris hype train and predicting he’ll go one better than his 2024 runner up spot and win the whole damn thing.
Norris can be his own biggest rival at times, so hard is the 25-year-old on himself when things go awry, but he seemed to find a new confidence in himself in the closing stages of the last campaign that will be crucial this year.
The Briton stamped out the mistakes in qualifying to top the charts in terms of pole positions (jointly with Max Verstappen) with eight in 2024 – and he finally made it to the top step, with victory in Miami before adding triumphs in the Netherlands, Singapore and Abu Dhabi.
He was also crucial in McLaren fending off Ferrari for their first constructors’ championship since 1998, and he now has some serious momentum. I agree with his team radio message after he helped clinch that title with victory in Abu Dhabi when he said next year, it’ll be him that seals the individual crown too.
2024 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Norris crosses the line to take victory – and clinch the constructors’ title for McLaren
2. Ferrari will win the constructors' championship
Ferrari levelled up in a big way in 2024. Led by Fred Vasseur – in only his second year in the job – the Scuderia started the year off strongly and then recovered from a mid-season blip to arguably be the best of all squads in the final few races.
It wasn’t quite enough to secure the championship, but their five wins and four poles proved they had what it takes to get the job done.
Their season-long charge – which saw then finish just 14 points shy of the title – was fine reward for a team who were prepared to take more risks and seem to be successfully eradicating a culture of fear that has held them back for so long.
With Charles Leclerc operating at his highest-ever level and the arrival of seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton, who will be itching to prove he’s still got what it takes to not just win more races but win a record eighth world drivers’ title, I suspect that devastating combination will take the constructors’ crown back to Maranello for the first time since 2008.
Will Leclerc and Vasseur lead Ferrari to glory in 2025?
3. At least two full-time rookies will make the podium
Formula 1 will see six rookies make their full-time Formula 1 debuts in 2025, with Kimi Antonelli driving for Mercedes, Ollie Bearman in at Haas, F2 champion Gabriel Bortoleto debuting for Sauber/Audi, Jack Doohan driving for Alpine, Isack Hadjar stepping up to Racing Bulls, while Liam Lawson will be getting a full season at Red Bull – and I expect at least two of them to get on the podium.
Bearman and Franco Colapinto proved what is possible for bright young talent when they starred in super sub performances in 2024, with Bearman scoring points in Saudi Arabia despite only taking part from FP3 onwards, and Colapinto scoring twice in his first four races for Williams.
Antonelli and Lawson are best-placed to help me get this prediction over the line given the teams they’re racing for – but Bearman will fancy his chances, too, if Haas step on again from 2024 when they were often best of the rest.
Ollie Bearman and Kimi Antonelli are among a host of rookies on the grid in 2025
4. Fernando Alonso will end long wait for a win
The 2024 season was a chastening one for Fernando Alonso. The double world champion entered the year with so much hope after a season that yielded eight podiums but instead he found himself with an unpredictable Aston Martin car that never really looked like it was capable of bringing home any silverware.
Billionaire team owner Lawrence Stroll won’t tolerate that kind of form for long, though, especially as he’s pumping so much money into the team – so I expect a new-look management team that is headed by former Mercedes boss Andy Cowell and which will feature Ferrari’s Enrico Cardile and design genius Adrian Newey to step it up in 2025.
Contending for race wins or even podiums regularly will be a big ask, but they should make enough of a step that on the right weekend, the stars will align to give double world champion Alonso the chance to show he’s still got it at 43-years-old and secure a first win since the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix.
Alonso ‘ready to go for 2025 after a little reset’
5. More than half the grid will stand on the podium
Ten drivers stood on the podium last year, a number that was inflated because of the freak weekend in Brazil when torrential weather opened the door for Alpine to secure a shock double podium with Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly, despite having spent most of the year towards the back of the pack.
Next year, I expect the big four – McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes – to secure podiums across both cars to make it eight different faces on the podium. With the field set to converge even more, I expect to see at least three more drivers to crack open the bubbly on the rostrum.
Haas, Aston Martin and Racing Bulls have been knocking on the door of a top-three finish, Alpine have shown a big upturn, Williams will have the formidable line-up of Alex Albon and four-time winner Carlos Sainz, while Nico Hulkenberg can’t be discounted for finally getting a podium trophy after 227 starts should Sauber step on and the German level up as well. It could be open-season, in what I am predicting to be a thrilling 2025…
How the epic 2024 season unfolded
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