Norris vs Verstappen, intriguing storylines and a new winner – Our writers share their predictions for the final six races of the season

The 2024 F1 season has proven to be a thrilling one so far, and it remains all to play for as the campaign heads into its closing stages. As the sport takes a brief pause before the action resumes, our writers Lawrence Barretto, Alex Jacques, David Tremayne and Mike Seymour have shared their predictions for what could happen in the final six races of the season, ranging from who will win in both championships through to the key storylines to look out for…

Can Lando Norris beat Max Verstappen in the drivers’ championship – if not, why not?

Lawrence Barretto (F1 Correspondent & Presenter): Absolutely he can. It’s not going to be easy – and it’ll require one of the greatest comebacks in Formula 1’s history, but Norris has shown on several occasions this year that he’s got what it takes to be the very best. I think he can do that consistently in the last six races (and three Sprints) and continue his run of finishing ahead of Verstappen (he’s done it four times in a row and counting). His reward will be the title.

READ MORE: From Fangio to Hamilton – Who are the oldest world champions in the history of Formula 1?

Alex Jacques (F1 TV Commentator): Lando Norris can win but in truth many things count against him. He is up against one of the best to ever compete in Max Verstappen, and in too many races big opportunities for point swings have come and gone. In Monza especially, McLaren and Norris badly let Red Bull off the hook on a day which could have seen a potential 20-point swing instead of the nine actually achieved. The reason it remains possible is F1’s longest ever season. Six Grands Prix and three Sprints still remain. Norris has been a contender for victory at every race since May and could easily rattle off multiple wins to heap the pressure on Red Bull. The other crucial element in the title race is Oscar Piastri. Norris has won by 20-second margins in two of the last four races and on both occasions Oscar has not been able to be the car behind him. A McLaren one-two in Austin would worry Red Bull because a regular swing of 10 points per race would change the title picture quickly.

David Tremayne (Hall of Fame F1 Journalist): Yes, if the luck runs with him and not so much with Max. Six Grands Prix left, plus three Sprints... That’s respective maxima of 156 and 24, so a total of 180 points still on the table. And Max’s lead is down to 52… So yes, he can win it. Red Bull looked to have done something pretty useful to the RB20 in qualifying in Singapore, when it looked like its old self (in a line-up admittedly skewed by Ferrari’s disappointing Saturday). But in the race it got pulped by Lando’s McLaren (who didn’t?!). I’d expect Max to be a major threat in quali, but in the races for McLaren to have the upper hand. So, yes, I think Lando can do it. But don’t write off threats from Ferrari and, possibly Mercedes, which could put a limit on the points available to the cars from Woking. It’s going to need six perfect weekends from Lando. And if he can pull that off, he’d be the worthy world champion he so wants to be.

Mike Seymour (Staff Writer): First of all, it’s brilliant that such a question is being posed with just six rounds to run. After Verstappen and Red Bull’s dominance in 2022 and 2023, and the threat of them doing the same early in 2024, the fluid, multi-team fight we’ve now got is so refreshing. Can Norris beat Verstappen to the title? Of course. Will he? That’s what we’re all eagerly awaiting the answer to. With the Dutchman still 52 points clear despite not winning since Spain amid the RB20’s relative struggles, it would take some swing – and a whole load of drama – from here to Abu Dhabi. Stranger things have happened in F1, though. It’s also worth noting that 180 points remain up for grabs, with three more Sprints on the way in Austin, Sao Paolo and Lusail. My head says Verstappen will win it, but Norris has given himself a chance, and it’s far from over.

Who will finish first, second and third in the constructors’ championship?

LB: I don’t want to jinx it, but it’s very difficult to see how McLaren won’t win this year’s constructors’ championship – their first for more than two decades. They have won the development war and been utterly brilliant this year. I expect Ferrari to pinch second, with reigning world champions Red Bull demoted to third.

AJ: 1. McLaren 2. Red Bull 3. Ferrari. McLaren will have to balance the risk of pushing for the drivers’ title with Norris, but I’d be surprised if they were caught from here. Red Bull can’t afford to slip to third because people will start using words like ‘collapse’, but they seem confident they now know what to fix.

READ MORE: ‘The mission is on’ – Stella targeting both championships following Norris’s dominant Singapore GP win

DT: Well, it’s pretty close between Red Bull and Ferrari for second right now, isn’t it? Just 34 points. You can do that in one weekend, let alone over six. And with both cars scoring in six Grands Prix and three Sprints, there’s a whopping 309 points still up for grabs. I ran through my caveats regarding Red Bull above, so their form remains uncertain but I have a feeling it won’t always be as bad as it was prior to Singapore. But Ferrari, though very quick at times, seem to have a penchant for pulling triggers when their holstered guns are still pointing at their boots. So I expect some ups and downs in that battle, which will doubtless stir things up as the season grinds down. I’ll go for McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull.

MS: McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull, in that order. McLaren have only been going in one direction since mid-season and I don’t see that changing over the final six weekends. This is, quite clearly, their more realistic title-winning opportunity and would still give the team plenty to celebrate given they have not won the constructors’ championship since 1998. Rather than Red Bull mounting a comeback against McLaren, I think they’ll have a battle on their hands to keep Ferrari at bay and ultimately lose out. If Sergio Perez had continued his strong start to the season, the answer to this question would have been very different, and perhaps even beyond doubt by now, but sitting almost 200 points behind team mate Verstappen shows what’s been lost.

Which team and driver needs to have a strong showing in the final six races of the season?

LB: Mercedes will want to recapture the form they showed between Austria and Belgium, which saw them take three wins in four. That performance has since deserted them, so they’ll be keen to get some answers in the remaining races in the hope they can be in title contention next season. Sergio Perez may have survived losing his seat to Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull, but there’s a new threat in town in the shape of Liam Lawson. The Mexican has scored just one point in the last two races and will need a strong end to 2025 to avoid losing his seat to Lawson, whom Red Bull rate highly and believe has the potential to race for the works team.

AJ: RB need to find some answers having got lost with updates, sacked Ricciardo and failed to score in the last four races. They could easily slip behind Haas and Williams unless things turn around fast. Sergio Perez needs to find more of that superb Baku form, with his Team Principal Christian Horner openly speculating about the future driver line-up in the media. I’d also like to see Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes finish on a high after a partnership that redefined standards in Formula 1.

READ MORE: Lawson reveals advice Ricciardo gave him after RB seat swap was confirmed

DT: This is like a taunting question, isn’t it? Aimed at one driver and car combo, and I’m sure everyone knows full well who that is. Mercedes need to locate that Silverstone, Hungary, Spa magic again. Kick Sauber need to find some direction and luck into a point or two, and RB need to find their mojo and defend against fast-closing Haas. But of course the real answer is Checo Perez and Red Bull. That combo need to improve, big time. We know how tricky the RB20 must be if Max is struggling so much with it, so maybe we shouldn’t be quite so hard on the Mexican. But… he really does need to find the key to unlock better performance, especially when he gets to his homeland…

MS: Beyond the more obvious choices toward the bottom of the standings, Mercedes will be one team looking for some answers when the season resumes – their pre-summer break run of three wins in four (albeit with some good fortune in Austria) being followed by a trickier spell. It will be especially important for 2025, amid stable regulations, if the Silver Arrows are to kick on and become title challengers again. As for drivers, I would add to my note above about Perez’s form. There’s no doubt that racing alongside Verstappen is one of the toughest jobs in F1, and the Red Bulls he’s driven have been difficult to tame, but the gap between Perez and his team mate remains significant on most weekends. If he fails to rediscover his form, and the returning Liam Lawson impresses at RB, Red Bull chiefs have shown they are not afraid to make big decisions.

What storylines are you most excited by in the final six races?

LB: I’m intrigued to see if Red Bull can get their season back on track with the upgrade they’re bringing to Austin. I want to see if Aston Martin can find a way to end the season with a flourish after a lacklustre year. And I’m keen to see if RB can hold off a resurgent Haas in the fight for P6 in the constructors’ championship.

AJ: I’m excited to see if McLaren can close out their first constructors’ championship since 1998, which would mean a huge amount to so many at Woking and would be the first time that trophy has been brought back to their current factory. I’d also love to see one last swashbuckling Kevin Magnussen defensive drive before he brings his time in F1 to a close. Finally, a second race in Vegas in the middle of championship fight is a tantalising prospect for a mixed-up and thrilling race, given how close it was last season.

READ MORE: From Hulkenberg to Hamilton – how the most hyped drivers fared in Formula 1

DT: Well, obviously Lando versus Max, and Oscar versus everyone; Charles and Carlos vs the world; plus what Lewis might be able to do in his final half dozen outings for Mercedes. And more Alex vs Franco (how impressive has the young Argentine been?) chez Williams. But looking further down the grid, I’m really looking forward to seeing what Liam Lawson does at RB. I remember in Vegas last year, when he was cruising past us in the paddock, I just pointed at him and said, “You should be in an F1 car. It’s ridiculous that you aren’t!” Of course, he knew that all too well himself. But it irked me that he wasn’t. I hate watching talent sitting on the sidelines, and after what he did in his few runs with AlphaTauri last year I’m excited about how he’ll handle this great new opportunity.

MS: There’s plenty on my list: the race for both world titles; how the top four positions in the constructors’ championship get settled; who ends the season with the fastest car; the squabble for P6, with four teams covered by 21 points; how much pressure super-sub Franco Colapinto puts on Alex Albon as the Grands Prix tick by; and whether Lawson can stake his claim for a Red Bull seat.

One bold prediction for the final six races of the season…

LB: Sergio Perez will become Formula 1’s eighth different winner in 2024 – and he’ll do it on home soil in Mexico.

AJ: Norris will reduce the gap to 26 points or under after Qatar and the title will be decided in Abu Dhabi.

READ MORE: From a world champion to a fellow Red Bull reserve – How Liam Lawson’s New Zealand compatriots have fared in F1

DT: Liam Lawson will outscore Yuki Tsunoda over the next six races…

MS: Fernando Alonso will get himself and Aston Martin back on the podium by being in the right place at the right time to capitalise on a dramatic race.