ANALYSIS: How Williams won out over Sauber and Alpine to secure Sainz – and what it means for the rest of the driver market

Carlos Sainz has finally released some pressure in the driver market by choosing his ride for 2025, the Spaniard committing his future to James Vowles’s rebuild project at Williams. With other offers on the table, why did he choose the iconic British team and what does it mean for the rest of the driver market?

Losing your seat at Ferrari is never going to be easy, but Sainz could at least take comfort from the fact he was losing his to the greatest driver of his generation, in the form of Lewis Hamilton.

At that stage, Sainz was in a good position to find a strong drive for 2025 and beyond, with seats at Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Williams, Kick Sauber and Haas available.

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But as time went on, doors began to shut – firstly at Aston Martin when Fernando Alonso re-signed. Then it quickly became clear seats at race-contender teams Red Bull or Mercedes were no longer options. That left Sainz choosing between three projects – Williams, Sauber/Audi and Alpine.

All three had pros, all three had cons. The consistent thread, though, was that they were all projects that didn’t offer him an immediate opportunity to win or even challenge for podiums regularly. This took Sainz some time to accept, given he has been fighting at the sharp end this season and secured his third career victory earlier in the year in Australia.

The longer the wait went on, the harder it became to make a call. Then a flurry of races in quick succession – there were five in six weekends, ending with last weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix – made it hard for him to find the time to disconnect and assess the three offers objectively.

But he knew he couldn’t let it drag on, not least because he didn’t want to be left without a seat when the music stopped.

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So, a decision was made and over the course of the last weekend at Spa the final details were sorted, paving the way for Williams to announce him as their racer for 2025 alongside Alex Albon.

Was a move to Sauber or Alpine ever on the cards?

Sainz was tempted by the Sauber/Audi offer, as it offered him the chance to lead a huge project – funded by a manufacturer – in their first chapter in Formula 1.

However, Sauber have really struggled in recent times and of the three offers, they have the most ground to make up – and have just seen some upheaval with Andreas Seidl leaving as CEO and Sainz’s former Ferrari boss Mattia Binotto coming in to run the project.

Alpine chased Sainz very hard, with new executive director Flavio Briatore upping the ante after joining and doing everything he could to tempt the Spaniard back to Enstone, including waving the carrot of a potential Mercedes engine deal.

But they too have struggled for form this year, while also going through more than a year of upheaval that has seen nearly ever single senior member of staff leave the team. The most recent change came just this weekend, with news Bruno Famin would leave his role as Team Principal and focus on non-F1-related activities going forward.

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Sainz has been eyeing up Williams for months

In Williams, Sainz gets stability and a project that is going places, even if it’s in its infancy. Vowles has been putting the building blocks in play for 18 months or so, and there are clear signs behind the scenes that things are going in the right direction.

The team have gone on a huge recruitment drive, including significantly bolstering the technical team under the leadership of Pat Fry – who joined from Alpine – with the recruitment of Alpine’s former Technical Director Matt Harman.

They’ve had a long and fruitful relationship with engine supplier Mercedes and will know how to get the very best out of the powertrain, which is expected to be the class leader in 2026 when new rules come into play.

Owners Dorilton have pumped money in since the day they took over the team, and are committed to keep the resource flowing to take the team back to the glory days when they dominated the sport. Changes are clear – even if they aren’t yet translating into performance on track.

The Sainz family have been in talks with Williams for nearly a year now. They were at the factory in Grove before last Christmas and have been in constant contact with Vowles.

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Sources say contact between Sainz and Vowles has been consistent, to the point where they were messaging daily. Sainz believes in his vision, and that Williams offers him the best chance to at best shape his future – and at worst give him a package that, at certain races, will allow him to deliver strong results to keep him in the shop window.

Vowles has made no secret of his desire to sign Sainz, and has done everything in his power to persuade the Spaniard to sign on the dotted line. At one point in recent weeks, it looked like that chase would be in vain, but Vowles has impressively pulled it back and got his man.

What does Sainz’s decision mean for the rest of the driver market?

One of the reasons Sainz has committed to Williams is he accepted the spare berth at Mercedes has been taken, with F2 racer and Mercedes protege Kimi Antonelli expected to get it.

That leaves just three seats left.

Alpine may choose to take some time to reassess, especially given their recent change of senior leadership.

Valtteri Bottas is understood to be in the running if they want experience, while Jack Doohan is favourite if they want to go for youth and promote their Driver Academy.

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Over at Sauber/Audi, Binotto will likely have the second driver conundrum high up on his to-do list when he starts on August 1.

Bottas is believed to be in contention to stay there, alongside Nico Hulkenberg, while Zhou Guanyu might feel the change in management could help his chances of keeping his seat.

Unfortunately for Binotto, there isn’t a lot of choice at this stage of the season.

The one remaining seat sits at RB alongside Yuki Tsunoda.

Red Bull have an option on Daniel Ricciardo – and the recent Australian’s upturn in form has heavily increased his chances of the energy drinks firm exercising it.

But intriguingly for Ricciardo, he could find himself in a Red Bull, with the works team evaluating if they will continue with Sergio Perez after the summer break following the Mexican’s poor run of form.

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If they decide against it, Ricciardo is favourite to get promoted, with Liam Lawson earning promotion to RB.

Ricciardo would then get the rest of the year to prove he deserves to hold onto the seat, or Red Bull would have the option of doing a direct swap with Lawson at the end of the year.

Should Perez and Red Bull part ways, he would be a very strong option for Sauber/Audi and possibly Alpine, the Mexican having a wealth of experience with six wins, 39 podiums and three pole positions.

Sources say that Sauber/Audi would be the favourite to secure his signature – which would mark a return to a team where the Mexican made his F1 debut in 2011.